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MARKET UPDATE January 2017

The sales figures for 2016 are fascinating, even DRAMATIC. Despite what anyone says or thinks about the local real estate market, I expect to see big things in 2017.

The basics are still quite good. (Affordability, interest rates, unemployement still relatively low, housing supply). 

There is a definite trend of reduced volumes of sales, quite dramatically however, so this is not a time for sellers to be too bullish. There is undeniable evidence that changed market conditions, sentiment, tighter lending and a lack of price growth now for a long time (Many suburbs sitting at 2006/2007 prices), the Buyers know that they can wait for the right property at the right price. 

THE FACTS: (To illustrate I am using Applecross and Mount Pleasant only). 

Sales in past 5 years- APPLECROSS

2012- 180  (Days on market 164)
2013- 201  (Days on market 146)
2014- 174  (Days on market 109)
2015- 149  (Days on market 105)
2016- 138  (Days on market 132)

In other words, volumes down 32% on the peak of 2013 and 8% down on last year. (Source: Complete Data). 

Sales in past 5 years- MOUNT PLEASANT

2012- 159  (Days on market 162)
2013- 161  (Days on market 121)
2014- 183  (Days on market 100)
2015- 162  (Days on market 93)
2016- 112  (Days on market 111)

In other words, volumes down 39% on the peak of 2013 and 31% down on last year alone (Source: Complete Data). 

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

I am more excited than ever!- about the opportunity that 2017 presents, as we normally see new buyers and sellers alike jump into the market either now or early in the New Year anticipating a move.

Now more than ever getting the right agent is critical. 

The best agents make things happen, have energy and proactive systems in abundance. 

I expect big things in the New Year as the market settles back into a new kind of normal.

Buyers will buy, sellers can and will sell and everyone realises that the local property market is quite resilient and an excellent long term buy as far as value and lifestyle.

Please feel free to drop me a line to help you get moved in 2017.

MARKET UPDATE October 2016


Spring has come late in 2016, with early October still with a winter feel about it.

As soon as the cooler, wetter months subside traditionally spring represents a more buoyant and positive lift in local real estate markets.

More stocks to come on, more buyers are out and about, and a generally more upbeat disposition overall. We expect this year will be the same.

Right now, Applecross has 81 listings which are now up to 302 days average (median 171) on the market and Mount Pleasant has 70 properties 
on the market which are now up to 159 

days on the market average (75 days median). Stock numbers are down too about 15-20% in listing numbers.

This tells me that three things have occurred.
1) The sellable/best value properties have been sold

2) Many properties have been rested (unsold) where sellers are contemplating a new launch in spring. Watch for some more listing numbers

3) The properties priced optimistically have remained unsold as buyers continue to seek value.

We are also noticing finance from the banks is very tight, with examples of some properties coming back onto the market due to finance declines, as well as extensions being sought by brokers/banks for some finance applications as the lending criteria tightens.We see buyers prepared to engage the market and make offers where they see properties that broadly meet their criteria.

Buyer activity continues to be bold with many offers coming in way below expectations. This is quite normal as some buyers are looking for perceived distress sales or windfall opportunities.

Mostly, the sales that occur are in line with market value and we remain confident that the remainder of 2016 will be strong, in sales volumes and buyer activity.

Thank you and see you in the market place.

MARKET UPDATE September 2016

 


We see stock numbers down a little at the moment with a flurry of sales, and some early signs of equilibrium returning in the market, albeit still being tight and price sensitive. Buyers want value.

We are seeing interesting times in the local market right now, and we are selling plenty and adapting in these interesting market conditions.

The tried and tested wisdom is that the properties perceived as good value, presented well and with realistic sellers will sell, and as we have seen, many have been.We are seeing some bold, often aggressive activity and behaviour from some buyers, who some feel low SMS text offers are now the new norm. (Or aggressive verbal offers testing the agent, or extremely lowball offers). Also, some buyers trying to crystal ball gaze where they think the market is going and offering according to that.

Despite it being a buyer’s market, it isn't all the buyers way right now though. The best properties still attract top interest. Some properties sell for prices which end up with a spread of offers and interest as much as 20% apart. One sold last week where in the space of a week, 5 offers were presented and over 50 buyers viewed the home in the space of a month.  Many of our listings attract offers resulting in a sale in the first week on the market, proving the resilience of the local market, and certainly evidence no wholesale capitulation is occurring (despite the hype).

For buyers, once you have the right property, to get that property at the right price but in a way that the seller doesn't lose interest or interpret the offer as not serious, even offensive, it is important to have your finances in order beforehand, and to make a fair offer at market value. All serious sellers love talking to and dealing with the serious buyers.So for sellers, it is about finding the right buyer, as only one buyer can actually buy the property.

Especially in this market, properties should ideally be no more than 3-5% variable in the price between market value and asking price. If the gap is too large, there is a risk that the genuine buyers will reject it as "not really for sale" .

Choosing an effective strategy that allows a suitable way to discover the right highest market value in this market is critical. We at Evolution specialise in customised and effective marketing strategies, feel free to talk to us about it.

Thank you and see you in the market place.

The Importance of Price in a Tight Buyers Market

The market is very price sensitive at the moment.

Time and time again we see properties sit stagnant whilst the buyers grapple with getting the best value they can find. When a property is priced 10% or more above what buyers think is fair market value, usually the property will not only not attract offers, but probably the wrong buyers are viewing the property.

As soon as the price is adjusted to within 5-7% of current fair market value, some interest starts to firm up, and we find that when the figure is 3-5% several offers usually occur and buyers emerge.

Typically, when a property is on the market longer than 6 weeks, or has had more than 12 inspections and no offers, this could be a sign that the asking price is too high.

Even slight adjustments to an asking price can have a positive effect.  (Psychologically, the first 2 numbers are all the buyer looks at), hence $995,000 appears $100,000 less than $1,000,000.

Thank you and see you in the market place.

MARKET UPDATE August 2016

July 2016 has seen stock numbers stay about the same, and days on market creep up slightly. Sales in July are slow so far in the new financial year as I perceive many Buyers and Sellers trying to figure out what the market is doing and where it is going. Some Buyers are trying to capitalise, and many Sellers still hoping for better times.

We have seen early activity in the numbers at home opens and Buyer enquiries generally. As we mentioned last month, volumes are down, and some indication of prices softening (not carnage like some Buyers would have you believe).

Sellers: please remember that buying and selling in the same market means whatever the market is doing is largely cancelled out. There are many Buyers that want to buy and will do so as soon as they see great value.

Buyers: There are good properties available with many realistic Sellers that want to move on. The value is high right now, so it is a great time to jump in. Trying to predict what markets are doing is potentially risky, as no one really knows what is going to happen. The right time is now.

We expect to see many properties being rested, and many new listings leading up to spring. Buyers will have more stock to choose from in spring, but also more Buyer competition. Sellers will have more Buyers if waiting until spring, but also more competition from more listings.

The market has definitely moved and changed, even since 3 months ago. We believe it is essential that Sellers (and Buyers) reassess what the current market value is today so as to make and adjust realistic expectations, if the goal it to buy or sell in this market.

Please remember in this market, to both Buyers and Sellers, not all Sellers are overpriced, and not all Buyers are bargain hunters.


We find, and have always found, nice homes usually go to nice people. By that we mean, people that appreciate the quality and care taken in making a house a home, are usually the types of Buyers that want to own these homes and will be prepared to pay a fair price to get it.

We at Evolution Realty are delighted in handling many lovely homes and mostly get the privilege of dealing with a lot of lovely Buyers.

Please feel free to let us know your requirements if you are a Buyer, as many listings come and go without ever appearing online. For Sellers please feel free to get in early with a step by step guide to getting your property ready for the spring market, if you intend to sell anytime in the next 3 months.

Thank you and see you in the market place.

MARKET UPDATE July 2016

As the first half of 2016 is behind us, the comparison to the same period last year tells a vivid story about the local market right now, today. A knowledge of this comparison is essential for all Sellers.

Global factors and overall confidence being low, we have seen a fall away of sales volumes, quite dramatically.

Year to date (6 months) Applecross has had 63 sales (Down from 84 or 25% on last year) Mount Pleasant is a dramatic 45 sales down from 86 (48% down) on last year.

Applecross this year 108 compared to the same number last year 108 days to sell. Mount Pleasant 117 days to sell in 2016, up from 91 days in 2015.

The interesting figure I always look at is what I have called for years, "The two markets phenomenon", the days on market for the unsold stock. Two markets meaning, the half of listed properties that sell, and the other half that don’t.

  • Applecross- Days on market (based on 95 properties effective 29/6) is 291 (That’s right).
  • Mount Pleasant- Days on market (based on 71 properties effective 29/6) is 145 (Still a big number).

Many Sellers have been caught in a falling market, no doubt. Some areas have perhaps adjusted 5-10% in the past 6 months. Yet some properties still sell in days and weeks. Why is that? 

The good news!
If you are a genuine Buyer that is willing to engage good properties and pay a fair market value price there are many listings available and Seller’s that want to talk to you and release their properties to you

If you are a Seller, there are tried and true methods to work with this market, and agents that specialise in getting results in challenging markets.

It is correct to say, it is definitely not a one size fits all, and doing more of the same as a famous man by the name of Einstein said was “the definition of insanity”.

If you are looking to move, talk to me about how we can effectively price and position your property to stand out, in what is a tight Buyers’ market.

It can be disastrous to be stranded as one of the properties that misses the market. Talk to me about how we can avoid this.

I remain optimistic, buoyed and enthusiastic about the future local market. Much of our demand from Buyers comes from our existing database or local Buyers wanting to upsize, downsize or upgrade location within the City of Melville. Irrespective of global economic factors, there will always be this local demand.

REMEMBER: If you buy and sell in the same market, the market is negated and doesn’t really matter.

Thank you and see you in the market place.

MARKET UPDATE June 2016

Things are still very tight, maybe even more so than any time this year so far. The pending Federal Election may have stalled some Buyer activity. We are still seeing a lot of traffic at opens, and are writing offers. Some offers are very optimistic by Buyers, who many appear to be trying to guess where they see the market going, and offering accordingly.

Other, more realistic Buyers whose offers are aligned with current market value are finding that many Sellers are delighted to release their properties to those Buyers and as such we see a sale being made.

We see a lot of listings being rested if they did not sell during the initial listing period, and expect to see many new listings reappear, as well as new stock never seen in the market before now. Irrespective of the market conditions, if you buy and sell at the same time, the theory is that the market is cancelled out (In most cases).

I also have another view about the market and timing. To date, very few have the skills and expertise to accurately and precisely time the market, especially post 2008, no one knows for certain what is around the corner.

My view with regards to owner occupiers and anyone that wants to live in the property, putting plans or your life on hold waiting for better markets could be a recipe for prolonged waiting as we may see holding patterns for some time to come (As we said no one knows).

In this market, Sellers need every competitive advantage with regards to strategy, energy, marketing and pricing to stand out and get the Buyers attention. Only then, can a likely result be achieved. Sometimes, sales are made to Buyers already on the Agents radar or database. We recently had a sale in 4 days to a Buyer that was on our radar and matched to the property (with 4 other offers) enabling the Seller to secure a satisfactory sale. This was less than 24 hours after appearing on the internet.

Buyers, have a few local agents that you are in touch with. The internet is in some cases, already too late for the best new listings. If you are a Seller please feel free to chat to me about taking advantage of the current market conditions, marketing and strategy ideas to get sold in a reasonable timeframe for the best price.

Thank you and see you in the market place.

MARKET UPDATE May 2016

I stated last month that the market remains tight (listing numbers and Sales volumes). In early May 2016, this is still unchanged.

The recent 0.25% basis points reduction in official interest rates is also welcome news for potential Buyers as well as existing mortgage holders on variable rates. The market can do with any positive news right now that is available.An impending announcement of a Federal Election is a good thing (probably 2nd July) as the market wants certainty, and to understand what if any changes may affect negative gearing, projected growth and so on.

Many Buyers right now are making offers way below current asking prices to “test the market” for urgency or what they feel is distress sales. You can’t blame Buyers for that. Maybe for old or stale listings that can be understandable. There is however no evidence of wholesale price crashes or markets falling, other than the normal slight variations that we have seen for many years now.

If new listings come onto the market priced according to the most recent current market data, there is no reason a property should not sell quickly and at close to the asking price. I have said for nearly 15 years now, not all sellers and agents over price the listings that they sell. I often ask the hypothetical question, if something is worth a dollar in today’s market, and you pay a dollar, have you paid too much?

My answer, of course not. I think too many Buyers pay attention to trying to get a huge discount off the asking price instead of trying to figure out what the current fair market value is.

Sellers that want to move will find that once the asking price is perceived as close to market value, serious and genuine Buyers engage that property and often a sale or deal can be made. In a tight Buyers’ market, properties perceived as not competitively priced, are often overlooked, rejected or subjected to more aggressive low offers.

Sellers always run the risk that new stock, priced at current market value are descended upon by Buyers that have been in the market a fair while, as often we see under offer or sold happen quickly on these listings as Buyers see them as good value.

If you are a Seller please feel free to chat to me about taking advantage of the current market conditions and get sold in a reasonable timeframe for the best price.

Thank you and see you in the market place.

MARKET UPDATE April 2016


The market remains tight. (Listing numbers and Sales volumes).

To highlight that:

  • In the first quarter 2015 in Applecross there were 46 sales. So far this year in 2016 the number is 35 (down 25%).
  • Mount Pleasant first quarter 2015 33 sales, so far in 2016 only 20 (down about 40%).
  • Average days on market in Applecross is now a staggering 291 for the unsold stock. To make more sense of it, (eliminating really long on market stock) the median days on market for unsold stock in Applecross is 170 (still a big number).
  • Mount Pleasant the numbers are 146 days average and 91 days median (for the unsold stock).

This phenomenon is what I call a constipated market. I have seen it before, and know how to successfully work with it. Many Sellers have been caught in a changing market. The good news is it is fixable.

If you are a Seller please feel free to chat to me about how to solve this current situation and move forward

That tells me that the market is sorting itself out with regards to the sentiment and what the future holds. Once buyers realise the sky has not fallen in, and basically the local economy is doing ok, that slack or lag should catch up.

The properties that are selling are the ones perceived as the best value. As always in a Buyers' market, it is about value.

Thank you and see you in the market place.

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